I thought we were done with the “Historically Low” conversations…

The National Association of Realtors just forecasted that 2025 might actually end up slower than 2024 — which itself was the slowest sales year since 1995. And you can really feel it out there: more homes on the market, more price reductions… but not necessarily more sales.

In my view, a lot of sellers simply don’t need to sell — so if they don’t get the price they want, they’ll pull the listing and wait for better conditions. On the other side, buyers are tired of fighting uphill battles for the last six years, and frankly, if the math doesn’t work, the conversation stops before it starts. Today, you likely need a household income in the low $200,000s just to buy a starter detached home in San Diego. (For context, the median household income here is about $105,000.) And that’s without even factoring in debt‑to‑income ratios.

So here we are, headed into the dog days of summer, and the market feels stuck. My advice? Enjoy the sunshine and maybe some extra family time. And if you do have the means and the motivation, it is actually a good time to buy.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want to talk strategy, I’d love to connect. Let’s chat!

“2024 registering the lowest existing home sales since 1995. The 2025 market is also experiencing a slowdown in sales, with existing home sales expected to fall slightly below 2024’s figures, marking another historically low year”

— National Association of Realtors

Market Profile - July 2025

HOT TOPICS

Home sales flat in the first half of 2025 -
California home sales rose 4% in June compared to May, but were still slightly below last year’s levels. This marked the third straight month of year-over-year declines, hinting at softening demand. Rising mortgage rates and falling pending sales suggest July could remain slow.
Back-to-back declines in home prices -
California’s median home price dipped below $900,000 in June, falling 0.1% from both May and last year. This goes against the usual seasonal trend of price increases at this time of year. Continued market uncertainty and higher mortgage rates could keep prices from rebounding soon.
Total housing starts up, but single-family building slowed -
Overall housing starts grew 4.6% in June thanks to a surge in multifamily construction, but single-family starts fell to their lowest level in nearly a year. Permits for new construction were also down, suggesting builders remain cautious. Tariffs and higher homeownership costs may keep construction activity muted in the near term.
Inflation heated up in June -
Prices for goods and services rose 0.3% from May, the biggest monthly gain since January, partly due to tariffs. Annual consumer inflation reached 2.7%, the highest in four months, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.9%. Producer prices stayed flat, but tariffs are expected to add more pressure later this year.
U.S. retail sales rebounded, helped by higher prices -
Retail sales jumped 0.6% in June after falling sharply in May, beating forecasts. Higher spending on vehicles and dining out contributed to the rebound, but tariff-driven price increases also played a role. Even when adjusted for inflation, real retail sales still rose, showing consumers remain resilient for now.

Reach out anytime! Call, text, or message me 😊

Brendan

P.S. If you know someone who’s thinking about making a move or just has real estate questions, I’d be honored to help. Referrals are the heart of my business - and truly one of the kindest ways to show your support. Thank you for thinking of me!